Illinois Republican Party

New Poll Shows Brady in Strong Lead for Governor's Race
9/13/2010

Republican Bill Brady earns his highest level of support yet against Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn in Illinois’ gubernatorial contest, moving this race from a Toss-Up to Solid GOP in the Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state, with leaners included, finds Brady picking up 50% of the vote, while Quinn earns 37% support. Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, included for the first time in a Rasmussen Reports survey of this race, earns just four percent (4%) of the vote. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

Late last month, when leaners were included in the totals, Brady, a state senator, held a 49% to 41% advantage over Quinn.

Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. From this point forward, Rasmussen Reports considers results with leaners the primary indicator of the race.

If leaners are not included in the latest survey, Brady has 45% support to Quinn’s 30% and Whitney’s nine percent (9%). In the previous survey, without leaners, Brady led Quinn 46% to 37%.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of Brady voters say they are already certain of how they will vote in November, as are 57% of Quinn supporters and 42% of those who are backing Whitney.

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on September 12, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias remain locked in a tight race for the U.S. Senate in Illinois.

In the governor's contest, Brady earns support from 93% of Republicans, while just 66% of Democrats favor Quinn. Whitney captures four percent (4%) of Democrats and eight percent (8%) of voters not affiliated with either party. Brady leads Quinn by better than two-to-one among unaffiliateds.

Brady is viewed favorably by 56% of Illinois voters and unfavorably by 35%.

For Quinn, favorables are 43% and unfavorables are 53%.

Twenty-five percent (25%) have a favorable opinion of Whitney, an attorney and frequent candidate, while 32% regard him unfavorably. But 44% don't know enough about the Green Party candidate to venture any opinion of him.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of all voters in the state say they have voted for an independent candidate in past elections, while 41% have not. Still, 43% say they are less likely to vote for an independent in this election. Twenty-seven percent (27%) say they are more likely to pull the trigger for an independent on Election Day, and another 25% say the likelihood is about the same as in past elections.

Just 35% approve of the job being done by Quinn, who took over as governor last year after Rod Blogojevich’s impeachment. Sixty-three percent (63%) disapprove of Quinn’s job performance.

Source: rasmussenreports.com/Illinois.

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