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New Poll Shows Brady in Strong Lead for Governor's Race
Republican Bill Brady earns his highest level of support yet against Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn in Illinois’ gubernatorial contest, moving this race from a Toss-Up to Solid GOP in the Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state, with leaners included, finds Brady picking up 50% of the vote, while Quinn earns 37% support. Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, included for the first time in a Rasmussen Reports survey of this race, earns just four percent (4%) of the vote. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
Late last month, when leaners were included in the totals, Brady, a state senator, held a 49% to 41% advantage over Quinn.
Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. From this point forward, Rasmussen Reports considers results with leaners the primary indicator of the race.
If leaners are not included in the latest survey, Brady has 45% support to Quinn’s 30% and Whitney’s nine percent (9%). In the previous survey, without leaners, Brady led Quinn 46% to 37%.
Sixty-three percent (63%) of Brady voters say they are already certain of how they will vote in November, as are 57% of Quinn supporters and 42% of those who are backing Whitney.
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on September 12, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias remain locked in a tight race for the U.S. Senate in Illinois.
In the governor's contest, Brady earns support from 93% of Republicans, while just 66% of Democrats favor Quinn. Whitney captures four percent (4%) of Democrats and eight percent (8%) of voters not affiliated with either party. Brady leads Quinn by better than two-to-one among unaffiliateds.
Brady is viewed favorably by 56% of Illinois voters and unfavorably by 35%.
For Quinn, favorables are 43% and unfavorables are 53%.
Twenty-five percent (25%) have a favorable opinion of Whitney, an attorney and frequent candidate, while 32% regard him unfavorably. But 44% don't know enough about the Green Party candidate to venture any opinion of him.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of all voters in the state say they have voted for an independent candidate in past elections, while 41% have not. Still, 43% say they are less likely to vote for an independent in this election. Twenty-seven percent (27%) say they are more likely to pull the trigger for an independent on Election Day, and another 25% say the likelihood is about the same as in past elections.
Just 35% approve of the job being done by Quinn, who took over as governor last year after Rod Blogojevich’s impeachment. Sixty-three percent (63%) disapprove of Quinn’s job performance.
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